The red wave didn’t materialize in 2022.
But many believe the Senate is up for grabs in 2024.
And now Chuck Schumer’s worst nightmare may just come true depending on what these two Democrats do.
Democrats were full of themselves after the November 2022 elections.
The predicted red wave never quite materialized due in large part to Mitch McConnell and the moderate wing of the GOP selling out their base on core issues.
House GOP may have seen the light
But now with the newly GOP-controlled House off to a very conservative and combative start, 2024 could actually see a red wave.
And House leadership is being prodded by 20 conservative fighters who held up the Speaker’s vote until conservative issues were pushed to the forefront.
It looks like they will be working on everything from pro-life legislation to defunding the IRS and many other conservative bills.
It seems they may have seen the light after the 2022 disappointment.
And this could bode well for the Senate races in 2024.
Should the conservative base be fired up and ready to act, and Senate leaders not blow the shot, 2024 could be looking very red.
And Democrats seem to know it too.
It could all come down to this
That’s why Democrats are already launching the first salvos in what could be the most consequential battle for Senate control in 2024 – getting Jon Tester (D-MT) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) to run again.
The final decisions of the two Democrat Senators could very well determine Democrat chances of hanging onto its slim Senate majority in 2024.
The job of convincing them to run is considered the first and most important job by Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters (D-MI).
That’s why Peters already has lots of help in the task.
Democrat Senators have already confirmed in numerous interviews that they’re leaning hard on Manchin and Tester to run and help preserve the fragile majority.
And there’s good cause for that urgency.
If both Tester and Manchin retire rather than face tough reelection campaigns, it’s almost impossible to believe Democrats could hang onto those two seats.
Thus, it’s almost unimaginable that they would maintain their 51-49 Senate majority.
As Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) put it, “Both of them are in challenging circumstances. I think both can win, but they are the best candidates we have in their states.”
The two Senators’ decisions will determine how both parties allocate financial resources in what’s already expected to be a tough cycle for Democrats.
Democrats on defense
The Democrats are already figuring out how to defend vulnerable seats in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
In Michigan longtime Democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow has already announced her retirement.
And in looking at the 2024 Senate map, there are very few opportunities for Democrat pick-ups.
Tester and Manchin come from states with very slim candidate pickings for the Democrats.
Some even say that if Tester and Manchin do not run again the Democrats may just have to write off Montana and West Virginia.
Manchin has infuriated leftists and drawn calls for a primary challenge from the Left, an unrealistic prospect given that he’s the last Democrat standing in high office in West Virginia.
As he put it, “there’s no one on the Democratic side in West Virginia beating the door down” to run in his stead, or against him.
Manchin considered leaving Congress in 2018 after a government shutdown though he ultimately decided to run again, and narrowly won.
Even if he runs again, Manchin is facing a very serious challenge from popular conservative Congressman Alex Mooney (R-WV).
So will Manchin run again?
“I haven’t decided, I swear to God,” Manchin said in an interview. “They would love for me to. But they understand I’ve been doing this for awhile and I’m going to make a decision on my own time.”
Patriot Political will keep you up-to-date on any developments to this ongoing story.