When people say America is divided 50/50, that’s not exactly true.
Most states are solidly in either the Republican or Democrat camp.
But one blue state could be electing its first Republican to the House of Representatives in three decades.
November is too close to call
Democrats currently control the trifecta – the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives.
However, that all could change in just a few weeks’ time.
Republicans only need to flip a single Senate seat to demote Majority Leader Chuck Schumer down to the minority.
And the GOP doesn’t need much more to win back control of the House of Representatives.
With all 435 seats up for grabs, Republicans only need to net a five-seat pick up to take the gavel away from Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.
Most seats are already baked into the cake, with the parties really only battling over a few dozen battleground contests.
But sometimes, a district becomes surprisingly competitive.
That is the case in 2022 with one seat in deep, dark blue Rhode Island.
Red Rhode Island?
In 2020, Joe Biden won the tiny blue state over then-President Donald Trump by 21-points.
And there hasn’t been a Republican to represent the state in Congress since 1992.
But that may all be about to change.
Rhode Island only has two Congressional Districts.
This year, out of nowhere, Rhode Island’s Second Congressional District is in play.
And the competitive nature of the district is catching Democrats off guard.
Democrat incumbent Rep. James Langevin has been representing the district since 2001.
And his elections haven’t even been close.
The last five election cycles Langevin has won in landslides, by: 20.5-points in 2012; 24.5-points in 2014; 27.5-points in 2016; 27-points in 2019; and about 17-points in 2020.
A 17-point margin of victory typically isn’t anything to be embarrassed by.
But Langevin must have seen the writing on the wall, as he announced he would not run for re-election in 2022.
While the district is open in this year’s Midterms, it should still be safe for Democrats.
But it’s not.
Former Cranston Mayor, Allan Fung is the GOP nominee for the seat this November.
Fung is squaring off with Democrat State Treasurer, Seth Magaziner.
🚨 RHODE ISLAND 02 POLLING
Allan Fung (R): 45% (+𝟴)
Seth Magaziner (D): 37%
Roger Williams U:
Allan Fung (R): 46% (+𝟲)
Seth Magaziner (D): 40%
Rhode Island hasn’t elected a Republican to U.S. House since 1992
Conducted: 09/29-10/04 pic.twitter.com/hJlxsePHTC
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 12, 2022
The Republican has caught fire in the race and Democrats are scrambling to try and protect this seat.
The last two polls out of Rhode Island show Fung leading Magaziner by 6-points and 8-points respectively.
The polling indicates Fung is winning support of nearly 60% of independents in the district.
Magaziner isn’t dead in the water just yet.
The polling shows he hasn’t sewed up full support from Democrats yet, with not even two-thirds supporting his candidacy.
If Magaziner is able to consolidate party support and motivate Democrats to show up in droves at the polls, this blue state could still continue its GOP drought.